Features and Instructions

Snapshot metrics

Share images (and their /s/… pages) freeze the numbers at the moment they are created and stamp the data date in the corner. The footer also shows the price tier in effect: ALL CARDS COUNTED, or CARDS UNDER $X EXCLUDED when your account's "exclude prices below" setting was on. Tiers snap to $0.25, $0.50, $1, $2 or $5.

Resolution. Each snapshot is rendered at one fixed size chosen when it is created, from the creator's Snapshot Resolution setting — everyone who opens that link, embed or download gets the same image. Default is 1200×630 / 1080×1080 / 1080×1920; a half-size option is available to everyone, and larger renders are limited to authorized accounts.

Verdict

A one-line read of a sealed product, derived from the expected value (EV) as a share of the current market price and from the simulated break-even rate:

• POSITIVE EV — EV is at least 115% of the price.
• NEAR BREAK-EVEN — EV is 95–115% of the price.
• FAIR VALUE — EV is 80–95% of the price.
• POOR VALUE — EV is 60–80% of the price.
• VERY POOR VALUE — EV is under 60% of the price.
• LOTTERY TICKET — overrides the above when at most 15% of simulated openings beat the price and a single pack's standard deviation is at least 0.75× the price: most openings lose, a few win big.

Break-even is the share of 1,000 simulated openings worth at least the product's market price. Median is the middle simulated opening. The histogram shows all 1,000 simulated opening values with the EV and PRICE markers.

Confidence grade (A–F)

How much to trust the EV number. Four components, 25 points each, summed to a 0–100 score:

• Coverage — how many of the last 30 days have price history for the product.
• Freshness — age of the newest data point (full marks within 2 days, none after 14).
• EV stability — how much the product's EV has moved over the last 30 days (full marks below a 15% coefficient of variation).
• Outcome volatility — a single pack's standard deviation relative to the price (full marks at 0.5× or less, none at 1.5× or more).

A ≥ 80 · B ≥ 65 · C ≥ 45 · D ≥ 25 · F below. Products with no live market price are capped at C. Colors run green (A) → yellow-green (B) → yellow (C) → orange (D) → red (F).

Luck percentile

Real pack openings are ranked against 1,000 simulated openings of the same product. TOP 17% means the pack beat 83% of simulations; BOTTOM 20% means it landed in the worst fifth. Percentiles are whole numbers except at the extremes, where one decimal is shown (never a literal 0% or 100%). The top and bottom 1% get a crown or skull; the top and bottom 0.1% are labelled JACKPOT and DISASTER. In share images, when a price floor is in effect (cards under the cutoff don't count, so $0 openings are expected) the rank counts simulations the pack beat or tied; with no floor it is the standard "better than" rank, as on the site.

Generate a pack by selecting the expansion in the first dropdown menu and then a pack type from within that MTG expansion in the second dropdown menu.

You can generate another pack of the same type by clicking on the reload icon to the right of the second dropdown or by pressing the R key (laptop/desktop only).

On any device with landscape orientation and FHD (1080p) resolution or higher, on the right of the simulator some statistics information and a graph will be displayed and generated after simulating a pack.

If you would like to request a new feature, please reach out to us on Discord.